1. Research Goals and Methods

■ Research Background and Goals

￮ Regions where agriculture plays an integral role in the industrial framework require proactive policy measures and robust response systems to address supply–demand imbalances in agricultural products caused by abnormal weather patterns.

￮ Effectively navigating these imbalances necessitates an analysis of key factors examining how abnormal weather conditions affect the production and prices of agricultural products in the relevant region, as well as foundational research to develop policy alternatives.

￮ This study proposes policy roadmaps to support local farmers’ incomes and stabilize market prices, informed by a baseline study designed to help strike a supply–demand balance for fresh agricultural products in Jeonbuk.

￮ This study highlights the importance of forecasting extreme and microclimatic conditions to ensure sustainable farm incomes and developing practical alternatives suited to local agricultural environments.

￮ This study also establishes an empirical basis for designing a fresh agricultural product supply–demand forecasting model through statistical analyses of price volatility under various extreme and microclimatic conditions.

■ Research Scope and Methods

￮ This study covers 14 cities and counties in Jeonbuk State over the period 2021–2024. 

￮ This study employs literature reviews, statistical analyses, in-depth interviews, and expert consultations to analyze factors driving price changes of fresh agricultural products. 

2. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations

■ Factors that Drive Price Changes of Fresh Agricultural Products

￮ (Agricultural price perspective) Due to the inelastic and volatile nature of agricultural prices, demand responds weakly to price changes, whereas supply instability driven by external environmental factors constitutes the primary source of price fluctuations.

￮ (Agricultural production perspective) Agricultural production varies by region, so changes in suitable cultivation areas lead to output concentration in key producing regions, causing supply fluctuations that drive price changes.

￮ (Climate change perspective) With the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, agriculture—which is climate-sensitive—is directly affected, resulting in higher price volatility.

￮ (Demand-side perspective) Consumer preference changes impact prices via demand shifts, and rising demand for substitutes of specific agricultural products also contributes to price volatility

■ Measures to Stabilize the Supply and Demand of Fresh Agricultural Products  

￮ (Stabilizing agricultural activities) The supply stability of agricultural products can be secured by expanding contract farming and strengthening the effectiveness of crop disaster insurance.

￮ (Adapting to climate change) Crop mapping of shifting suitable cultivation areas and crop growth forecasting models can achieve a sustainable agricultural environment.

￮ (Advancing agricultural production structures) Smart farm facilities can be modernized through integrated soil–weather–geospatial systems and AI-based decision support.

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